Finding a dominant one-two punch at center is every NHL team’s dream. Elite centers are very difficult to acquire via trade or free agency and valued at a premium compared to similarly skilled wingers.
For the third year in a row, we examined the state of every NHL team’s top-six centers ahead of the upcoming season.
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A clear-cut ranking from No. 1 to No. 32 is a futile exercise because the margin separating a team with, say, the 10th and 16th best center duo is thin. That’s why it makes the most sense to sort them into tiers where the stratification is a bit more distinct. Within each tier, teams are not ranked in any particular order.
Teams are sorted into tiers strictly based on their projection for 2024-25 — contract values do not matter and we’re not factoring for future upside beyond this season.
Tier 1: Generational
Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid andLeon Draisaitl
Besides winning the Stanley Cup, what more is there for McDavid and Draisaitl to prove?
McDavid is undeniably the best player on the planet, something that he cemented in the playoffs by breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record for most assists in a single playoff run. Draisaitl, meanwhile, has scored at a 100-point pace or higher for six consecutive seasons, a feat no active player besides McDavid can claim.
McDavid and Draisaitl also deserve credit for how they level up in the postseason. McDavid has racked up 95 points in 53 games over his last three playoff runs (a 147-point pace prorated over 82 games) and Draisaitl isn’t far behind with 81 points in 53 games (a 125-point pace). When the games matter most, these two still dominate.
Tier 2: Franchise 1Cs and a respectable 2C
Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews and John Tavares
The Maple Leafs would get dinged in these tier rankings if cap hits were factored in because this duo costs $24.75 million (the most expensive in the NHL) and doesn’t provide the best bang-for-buck given Tavares’ overpaid contract. But we’re only measuring talent/performance here, which means Matthews/Tavares is still one of the best center duos in the league.
Matthews is the undisputed best goal scorer in the NHL. He’s fresh off a staggering 69-goal campaign and has a decisive 31-goal lead on Draisaitl for the scoring crown since the 2020-21 season. He’s also developed into one of the game’s best 200-foot centers, finishing third in Selke Trophy voting last season. That rare combo makes him a freakishly unique franchise center. The blemish on Matthews’ resume is his lack of playoff success. He’s produced at a 34-goal, 71-point pace over his playoff career while leading the Maple Leafs to just one postseason series win.
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Tavares isn’t close to being an $11 million player, but again, this exercise isn’t taking salaries into account, and he’s still operating at a high level. He scored 65 points last season, which ranked top-30 among centers. He also handily won his two-way matchups despite his slowing foot speed, driving a near 56 percent share of five-on-five scoring chances and a plus-nine goal differential last year.
Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon and Casey Mittelstadt
Fresh off winning the Hart Trophy after a 140-point campaign, MacKinnon is the best player in the league besides McDavid. MacKinnon’s combination of game-breaking speed, elite puck skills, big-bodied power and an outrageous shot makes him look like a video game character on the ice. It’s ludicrous how easily he can single-handedly take over a game.
Mittelstadt has also blossomed into a decent second-line center in his own right. He’s a gifted playmaker, finishing just shy of reaching 60 points in back-to-back seasons. He ranks 37th among all centers in points per game over the last two years. Mittelstadt is no Nazem Kadri, but he’s fit like a glove with the Avs and should excel as the club’s long-term 2C.
Florida Panthers: Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett
Barkov is no longer underrated — he’s unanimously recognized as a franchise center and one of the best all-around players in the sport. Barkov has been a Selke finalist in three of the last four years, winning the award twice in that span. He drove the Panthers’ top line to a preposterous 70 percent goal share (plus-30) at five-on-five. He consistently eclipses the point-per-game mark and would have more 90-point seasons if injuries didn’t cost him games in three consecutive years.
Bennett’s regular-season resume doesn’t scream high-end second-line center — he’s scored at a solid albeit unspectacular 51-point pace per 82 games over the last three years. He deserves a bump, however, because of how prolifically he elevates his game in the playoffs.
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Over his last six playoff runs, Bennett has registered 50 points in 69 games. He also provides intangible value as a physical wrecking ball in the looser, everything-goes playoff officiating style.
New Jersey Devils: Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier
If this was based purely on last year’s results, Hughes and Hischier wouldn’t belong this high. But I’m banking on their talent, upside and the elite form they showed in 2022-23 to power them to career-best performances this season.
The Devils are a bit different than the other center duos in this tier — Hughes isn’t quite an MVP-caliber player like the other top-line centers, but that shortcoming balances out because Hischier blows the other 2Cs in this tier out of the water.
Hughes ranks fifth among all centers — behind McDavid, MacKinnon, Draisaitl and Matthews — in averaging 1.24 points per game over the last two seasons. He’s a one-man zone entry machine, a stickhandling wizard and can finish his own chances equally as well as he can set teammates up. Hughes plateaued last year and missed 20 games because of injuries but I believe this is the year the 23-year-old takes the league by storm.
Hischier is a first-line caliber center, too. The Devils captain has flirted with the point-per-game mark over the last two seasons in addition to driving elite defensive results, finishing second in Selke voting in 2022-23.
Hughes is easily a top-10 center in the league (and could be in the top five or six by the end of this season) and Hischier has a very strong case as a top-20 pivot too. Few teams can flex having two top-20 centers on one roster.
Tier 3: High-end
Vancouver Canucks: Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller
The Canucks unquestionably boast one of the top center duos in the NHL, but deciding what tier to put them in wasn’t easy. I initially had them in Tier 2, with my logic being they’re the only team besides Edmonton with two centers who’ve registered a 100-point season within the last two years: Pettersson hit 102 points in 2022-23 and Miller reached a career-high 103 points last season.
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But after sending my initial list of tiers around for feedback, I received consistent pushback that Vancouver was too high, so I bumped them down. Why?
For starters, neither Pettersson nor Miller is in the same class as the Matthews/MacKinnon/Barkov tier of franchise center. Pettersson is also unproven in the playoffs following an extremely disappointing 2023-24 postseason where he scored just one goal in 13 games and looked completely out of sorts despite mostly getting middle-six caliber matchups. (Miller and Elias Lindholm got most of the head-to-head top-six battles.)
Miller, meanwhile, had a 105.3 PDO at five-on-five last season, which was the highest of all NHL players. PDO is the sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage when a particular player (Miller in this case) is on the ice. An abnormally high PDO is a sign that a player got favorable bounces and that their numbers are overwhelmingly likely to regress a bit. Miller’s gone through a dramatic two-way glow-up under Rick Tocchet, though. He’ll continue succeeding as an above-average first-line-caliber center, but whether he can repeat last year’s elite results remains to be seen.
If Pettersson and Miller hit their ceiling, they’ll move up from this tier next year.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin
At 36, Crosby had the best goal-scoring season of his career since 2016-17. Crosby can still drive the bus as a one-man show — he was the only player in the league to score more than 90 points on a non-playoff team last season. He’ll be without longtime running mate Jake Guentzel this year. Remarkably, that didn’t slow Crosby down as he piled up 31 points in 21 games down the stretch after Guentzel was traded.
Malkin’s stayed healthy for a full 82 games in back-to-back years for the first time in over a decade. He notched 27 goals and 67 points despite being saddled with subpar wingers (Reilly Smith and a struggling Rickard Rakell were his two most common linemates last season). These weren’t empty-calorie points on the power play, either — his 42 five-on-five points ranked 15th among all centers last year.
There’s a case to be made the Penguins deserved to be in Tier 2 too, but we can’t discount the possibility of an age-based slowdown this season (especially for Malkin, who’s 38).
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Tier 4: Above average
Vegas Golden Knights: Jack Eichel and William Karlsson
Eichel has hovered around the point-per-game mark over the last two seasons and Karlsson just scored 30 goals and 60 points in 70 games. That’s a strong start offensively, but the real kicker is they’re two of the most underrated defensive centers in the NHL.
Eichel and Karlsson combined for a plus-nine Defensive Rating last season, according to colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. That was tied with Florida and Toronto for the best defensive impact out of all top-six center duos last year.
Eichel isn’t at the same level of stardom as most of the No. 1 centers we’ve discussed to this point, but he’s still a fringe top-10 center in the league. Couple that with Karlsson being an excellent second-line pivot and you’ve got an above-average one-two punch.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli
We know Brayden Point is a world-class player; he’s coming off a second consecutive 90-point season and has a terrific playoff track record. He has an advantage over other centers since he plays with Nikita Kucherov, the best winger in the league, but there’s no denying he’s still a franchise center.
There are a couple of blemishes that ultimately led to them landing in Tier 4 rather than Tier 3, however.
First, Point’s defensive metrics were below par across the board last year. Point’s line surrendered shots and chances at a high volume which led to a 3.67 goals-against-per-60 rate at five-on-five. The Lightning had a minus-five goal differential during Point’s five-on-five minutes last season.
Second, Cirelli’s a good player but he’s far from being one of the top second-line centers in the league. His offense leaves more to be desired and while he’s a penalty-killing ace and quality defensive driver, his defensive impact isn’t Selke-caliber, either. Cirelli has averaged 43 points per 82 games over the last four years, which isn’t much considering how often he played alongside Brandon Hagel and Steven Stamkos in recent times.
New York Rangers: Vincent Trocheck and Mika Zibanejad
The Rangers have an enviable 1A-1B setup with Trocheck and Zibanejad down the middle.
Trocheck has blossomed into an all-situations No. 1 center for the Rangers. He hit a career-high 77 points last season, drove elite penalty-killing results, is a faceoff ace and plays a gritty, hard-nosed style. Trocheck has the luxury of playing alongside Artemi Panarin, which has to be factored in, but it’s worth noting Trocheck had 20 points in 16 playoff games despite his star linemate’s postseason struggles. He’s not simply riding Panarin’s coattails offensively.
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Zibanejad took a step back last year, particularly as an even-strength offensive driver. The 31-year-old’s 72 points is still a lofty total, but only 35 of those points were at five-on-five and he had a 30-game stretch without a single five-on-five goal. He was also held without a goal during the entire Eastern Conference final and in five of the six second-round games against Carolina. Zibanejad is still an excellent all-around player and is a luxury to have as a No. 2 center, but he’ll need to bounce back as an even-strength producer for the Rangers’ top-six center tandem to move up a tier.
Dallas Stars: Roope Hintz and Matt Duchene
Hintz had a pedestrian season by his lofty standards, producing 65 points in 2023-24. The 27-year-old isn’t at the age where you’d expect a player to start declining, however, and he was in the point-per-game neighborhood during the three seasons prior. I’d expect him to bounce back and score 70-75 points on top of driving elite defensive results (he was sixth in Selke Trophy voting last season). A season like that would boost his profile to a middle-of-the-road No. 1 center.
The Stars’ trio of Duchene, Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment formed one of the top second lines in the NHL last season. Duchene racked up 65 points, which is an impressive mark considering he didn’t get first-unit power-play time. He produced 2.18 points per 60 at five-on-five, which is a bona fide top-line caliber rate.
St. Louis Blues: Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich
Thomas is one of the NHL’s most underrated first-line centers. The slick playmaking center ranked top 10 among all centers with 86 points and absorbed some of the toughest defensive matchups of all forwards (ranked top three for most minutes against “elite” competition, according to PuckIQ). He also has less star power around him than many of his peers — he led the Blues in scoring by 19 points.
Buchnevich, who’s mostly played wing in his career, is a wild card at the second-line center position. Buchnevich is an excellent player — he can produce in the 70-point range and is a very trustworthy defensive player — but it’s hard to know how much of that will successfully translate to playing center. The Blues had a better winning percentage during the games where Buchnevich lined up at 2C last season, although he’s still raw playing down the middle.
If Buchnevich seamlessly transitions to being the full-time 2C, the Blues will have an above-average top-two center duo, but that’s not a guarantee.
Tier 5: Middle of the pack
Ottawa Senators: Tim Stützle and Josh Norris
Stützle, who’s still only 22, should bounce back and be closer to the 39-goal, 90-point player he was in 2022-23 rather than the 70-point producer he was last year. I believe in his dynamic, elite offensive skill set and he shot under 10 percent last season, which suggests he was hindered by poor finishing luck too. He should re-emerge as a star this season.
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Norris’ ability to excel as Ottawa’s 2C is a question mark, though. Major shoulder injuries have derailed the 25-year-old sharpshooter in recent years; can he stay healthy? Norris wasn’t his usual self even when he was in the lineup last year.His offensive output was fine (30 points in 50 games), but his two-way play-driving numbers were in the gutter. The Sens controlled just 44 percent of five-on-five scoring chances and were outscored by nine goals during his shifts last season. Shane Pinto is an option to move up the lineup if Norris gets hurt or struggles.
Buffalo Sabres: Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens
Will the real versions of Thompson and Cozens please stand up?
In 2022-23, both young centers had dream breakout performances: Thompson erupted for 94 points and Cozens scored 68 points. They looked like one of the league’s premier one-two center duos, only for Thompson to fall to 56 points in 71 games as he battled injuries last season (especially a hand/wrist ailment that hindered his one-timers) and for Cozens to regress to 47 points.
Both of them will likely rebound in 2024-25, but the question is by how much. There’s also uncertainty around what type of defensive results they’ll drive. Thompson has historically struggled in his own end but posted significantly better defensive numbers last season. Can he maintain that while producing closer to the point-per-game range? Cozens’ defensive numbers have never been pretty either, although he should have the physical attributes to level up as a two-way player.
Thompson and Cozens have tremendous upside as a duo. They could easily end up higher on this list a year from now. But after last year’s volatility, we’ll have to wait and see before we can truly buy in again.
Los Angeles Kings: Anže Kopitar and Quinton Byfield
Kopitar is still operating at a high level at 37. The smooth, big-bodied center scored 70 points and finished fifth in Selke Trophy voting. Kopitar doesn’t drive enough offense to be considered one of the league’s upper-echelon first-line centers anymore but he’s still a credible 1C.
Behind him, the Kings will be shifting Byfield, who was drafted as a natural center but started his career on the wing, back to the middle. Byfield has tantalizing potential because of his unique size, speed and skill combination. He broke out with 55 points last season and should be an above-average No. 2 center in his age-22 season.
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New York Islanders: Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson
Horvat is a reliable bet to score 30-35 goals and 65-70 points in addition to being solid but not elite defensively. He profiles as a below-average 1C — he’s the worst first-line center in Tier 6 — but the Isles make up for it with Brock Nelson, who’s arguably the best second-line center in this tier.
Nelson ranks 21st among all NHL players in goal scoring over the last three seasons, averaging 37 goals per 82 games in that sample. He’s an especially potent even-strength producer; only nine centers scored more five-on-five points than him last season. Nelson’s defensive metrics are slightly below par, but he’s unquestionably one of the premier 2Cs in the NHL. That elevates the Isles into this tier despite Horvat being a worse-than-league-average first-line center.
Tier 6: Star No. 1 center but a major 2C question mark
Carolina Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Aho broke out with a career-high 89 points in addition to his high-end two-way impact. He’s a franchise player and an above-average first-line center.
However, the Canes have had a gaping hole at the second-line center position ever since they let Vincent Trocheck walk in free agency. Jesperi Kotkaniemi was supposed to be the long-term answer but his lack of development has been frustrating. Kotkaniemi looked like he was on the cusp of a breakout after the 2022-23 campaign when he scored a career-high 43 points, which included a torrid stretch of 27 points in 35 games to close out the season. He regressed instead of building on that, though, notching 27 points in 79 games while also seeing his ice time plummet in the playoffs.
At 24, Kotkaniemi’s still young enough to improve, but it’s highly concerning for a Stanley Cup contender to have this big of a hole at 2C.
Chicago Blackhawks: Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev
There was arguably no first-line center in the NHL who had less help than Bedard last season. Philipp Kurashev,Nick FolignoandRyan Donato are the three forwards who shared the most five-on-five minutes with him, according to Natural Stat Trick. That makes his near-point-per-game season as an 18-year-old rookie that much more impressive. Bedard needs to clean up some of his defensive details, but he should be poised for a monster sophomore campaign now that he’s a year older and surrounded by a substantially upgraded supporting cast.
Kurashev, who played wing on Bedard’s line last season, will be Chicago’s 2C stopgap this season. The 24-year-old scored 54 points last year, but a big chunk of that production was driven by riding shotgun with Bedard at even strength and on the top power-play unit. His offensive numbers will almost certainly regress this season. Kurashev is an adequate 2C stopgap for a rebuilding team, but long term, he profiles as more of a third-line forward.
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Montreal Canadiens: Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach
Suzuki is coming off a banner year where he scored a career-high 77 points on top of driving strong defensive results. Most would view him as a top 15-20 center in the league.
The uncertainty for Montreal comes at the 2C position, where Dach is getting an audition. The first question mark with Dach is whether he can stay healthy for a full season. The 2019 No. 3 pick was only healthy for two games last season and played fewer than 60 games during his first year with the Canadiens. He also played just 18 games with Chicago in 2020-21.
Second, while Dach enjoyed a wonderful breakout season in 2022-23 (38 points in 58 games), the majority of that was spent on the wing with Suzuki rather than centering his own line. Dach has yet to prove he can excel as a top-six center. There’s no question he’ll be a big part of the Canadiens’ forward group, but his skill set may end up being more effective on the wing than playing down the middle. Making matters worse is Patrik Laine, who was supposed to play on Dach’s right wing, is now injured.
Dach’s more likely to succeed at 2C than other players in this tier, but Aho and Bedard will likely outperform Suzuki this year, so it balances out.
Detroit Red Wings: Dylan Larkin and J.T. Compher
Larkin has consistently scored in the point-per-game range over the last three years and is the Red Wings’ play-driving engine. Detroit seems to fall apart if he ever misses a few games with injury, which speaks to his irreplaceability. Most would rate Larkin as a middle-of-the-road first-line center because he’s not quite elite or an undisputed superstar despite being an excellent player who elevates those around him.
Compher quietly had a good first season in Detroit, scoring 48 points in 77 games. He’s only a serviceable stopgap as a low-end second-line center, though. The Red Wings were caved in with Compher on the ice last year, controlling 43.4 percent of shots and 44.6 percent of five-on-five scoring chances. Compher’s time in Colorado proved he’s ideally a 3C rather than a 2C. He isn’t as overmatched at 2C in this tier as Kotkaniemi or Kurashev but Larkin will likely be outperformed by Aho and Bedard.
Tier 7: Below average
Boston Bruins: Elias Lindholm and Charlie Coyle
The Bruins’ top-six center outlook heavily depends on what version of Lindholm they get.
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Lindholm’s defensive chops are still excellent, but his ability to drive offense took a sharp nosedive last season. The 29-year-old scored 44 points in 75 games, with his offensive play-driving numbers cratering, too. The good news is Lindholm won’t have to do the heavy lifting offensively because he’ll likely be flanked by David Pastrňák. Playing with Pastrňák, Lindholm should be able to excel in a complementary role and bounce back closer to the 65-point range. Still, Lindholm’s closer to being a high-end 2C than he is a bona fide first-line center.
Coyle took on a huge workload last year because of the Bruins’ lack of top-flight centers. He performed well on the surface, scoring 60 points, but he’s still best suited as a third-line center rather than a true top-six pivot. Coyle’s two-way results crumbled with the tougher workload, with Boston controlling 45 percent of five-on-five shot attempts during his shifts. He also struggled in the playoffs with one goal in 13 games.
Nashville Predators: Ryan O’Reilly and Thomas Novak
O’Reilly exceeded all expectations during his first season in Nashville, scoring 69 points for his best offensive season since 2020-21 when he operated at close to a point per game. He drove solid albeit not elite defensive numbers on top of that. Given that last year’s production was an outlier compared to recent seasons — he scored 30 points in 53 games in 2022-23 and 58 points in 2021-22 — and he’s now 33, O’Reilly’s offensive numbers will likely see a slight drop off this season. O’Reilly has aged well overall, but he’s a low-end first-line center at this stage in his career.
Many are excited to see whether Novak, a dynamic, skilled playmaker, could break out offensively now that he’s projected to be flanked by Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. It’s a tantalizing proposition, especially since Novak has scored 95 points in 149 career games (a 52-point pace). With that said, Novak still has defensive flaws and last year’s playoffs also proved he hasn’t arrived as a true 2C yet. Novak went pointless in the first round against the Canucks, who pushed him to the outside. Novak averaged just 10:31 per game in the playoffs.
Anaheim Ducks: Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson
Carlsson and McTavish will be an excellent one-two punch in the future. They’re growing and have only scratched the surface of their potential, but this exercise is only looking at this season, and the reality is neither one is likely to be one of the top 15-20 centers in the league this year.
McTavish popped offensively with 42 points in 64 games as a sophomore. He’s an exciting offensive talent because of his dual-threat playmaking and scoring skill but like most young centers, he has defensive blemishes that need to be cleaned up.
With a large 6-foot-3 frame, buttery smooth puckhandling and elite playmaking vision, Carlsson has strong breakout potential for 2024-25. I believe he’ll develop into a franchise center one day, but he’s still only 19 and is coming off a rookie campaign where he scored 29 points in 55 games.
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The Ducks could get above-average results from the 2C spot, but they’ll be overmatched at the first-line center position by most teams this season.
Minnesota Wild: Ryan Hartman and Joel Eriksson Ek
Eriksson Ek is a defensive dynamo, finishing top 10 in Selke Trophy voting in four consecutive seasons, and has steadily grown his offensive game. The long, rangy center has improved his point totals five years in a row, reaching 64 points last season. Eriksson Ek is underrated around the league, but he wouldn’t be the No. 1 center on most contending teams.
Despite Marco Rossi’s impressive rookie season, Hartman will get the first crack at centering the Kirill Kaprizov line. Hartman’s had some success with Kaprizov in the past — he scored 65 points in 2021-22 — but couldn’t sustain that prolific production and bounced around the lineup during the last couple of seasons. Hartman isn’t a true full-time top-six center.
Washington Capitals: Dylan Strome and Pierre-Luc Dubois
Strome broke out with 65 points during his first season with the Capitals and followed it up with 67 points last year. The slick playmaking pivot has added a goal-scoring dimension to his game in recent years and has delivered solid play-driving metrics despite carrying a reputation for being poor defensively and requiring sheltered minutes before arriving in D.C. With all that said, Strome wouldn’t be the No. 1 center on most NHL teams, and that lack of a true 1C is why the Caps slot in this tier.
As onerous as Dubois’ contract is and as underwhelming as he was in Los Angeles, last year’s 40-point performance was an outlier. Dubois has a lengthy track record of being a second-line-caliber center who can notch around 60 points; he should return to that type of level now that he’ll have a bigger role in Washington than he did in L.A.
Winnipeg Jets: Mark Scheifele and Vladislav Namestnikov
Scheifele has always been gifted offensively and last year was no exception as he piled up 72 points in 74 games. The problem is that he has a history of being one-dimensional — he’s posted lackluster defensive results for most of his career and has lost his even-strength matchups more often than not. Scheifele’s five-on-five goal differential was significantly better last season and he seemed more defensively conscious by the eye test, so perhaps he’s turned a corner, but his defensive numbers were still decisively below average as the Jets were outshot and out-chanced in his minutes.
Namestnikov is extremely versatile, reliable and an above-average defensive driver. He’s not, however, a true second-line center. Namestnikov’s 37 points last season marked the first time he’s eclipsed the 35-point mark since 2017-18. He just doesn’t produce enough offensively.
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Calgary Flames: Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund
On a contending team, Kadri would be the perfect No. 2 center (just like his days in Colorado) and Backlund would be a quality third-line checking center. Following the Lindholm trade, they’re both playing one slot higher up the lineup than what’s ideal, but that’s OK given the Flames’ retool/rebuild.
Kadri led the Flames with 75 points last season, which was 16 more than his next-highest teammate. He drove all of that offense while still maintaining decent defensive numbers, too. Kadri’s a perfect veteran to help Calgary’s emerging youngsters on and off the ice.
Backlund, on the other hand, is starting to decline offensively at 35. He slipped from 56 points to 39 last season, although his defensive metrics remain strong.
Tier 8: Young developing talent/Needs improvement
San Jose Sharks: Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith
When Celebrini and Smith hit their prime, the Sharks will likely ice one of the league’s best one-two punches down the middle.Celebrini and Smith will surely have their moments of brilliance this season but expecting them to dominate as teenage rookies isn’t realistic. There will likely be bumps in the road and learning moments, especially from a two-way play-driving perspective.
Celebrini’s draft-year NCAA production was very similar to Jack Eichel and Adam Fantilli. Eichel scored 56 points as a rookie, whereas Fantilli was pacing for 45 points last season before he got injured. Celebrini will likely have more opportunity out of the gate than Fantilli, who averaged under 16 minutes per game, so eclipsing 50-plus points seems like a realistic possibility. Scoring 50-plus points as an 18-year-old rookie would be enormously impressive, but it’s not close to what you expect from a true 1C.
Celebrini and Smith will swiftly climb up these tiers in the years to come, but we’ll keep expectations tempered and reasonable for their rookie campaigns.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Sean Monahan and Adam Fantilli
Monahan isn’t a true first-line center, but he’ll be an effective veteran stopgap for the rebuilding Blue Jackets while the likes of Fantilli and Cayden Lindstrom develop. He had a wonderful bounce-back campaign last year, scoring 59 points. Hopefully, he can stay healthy again and continue producing in the 50-60 point range.
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Fantilli is one of my favorite breakout candidates for 2024-25. The 2023 No. 3 pick has a big, powerful frame, plus skating ability (ranked in the top 10 percent of all NHL forwards for speed bursts above 20 miles per hour), excellent puck skills and a relentless motor. He should take on a much bigger role in his sophomore campaign and could easily become the club’s best forward by the end of the season.
Columbus has a bright long-term future at center, but I can’t move them up until one of their young players grows into a bona fide 1C.
Utah Hockey Club: Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton
Cooley’s growth from Game 1 of the regular season to Game 82 was remarkable to watch. The 2022 No. 3 pick endured growing pains early on, scoring one goal at five-on-five in his first 41 games while also getting crushed from a two-way perspective. By the end of the year, he looked like one of the most promising young players in the NHL. Cooley piled up 11 goals and 16 points in his last 22 games. He should be ready to take a big step from the 44 points he registered last season but it’s likely going to take multiple years for him to develop into a bona fide first-line-caliber center.
Hayton was derailed by injuries last season and only scored 10 points in 33 games. He’s still projected to center the top line with Clayton Keller. The 24-year-old has an intriguing skill set, and he flashed promise in 2022-23 when he scored 43 points, but he hasn’t proven himself as a top-six pivot yet.
Seattle Kraken: Matty Beniers and Chandler Stephenson
Beniers suffered through a sophomore slump last season, mustering 37 points in 77 games. Odds are he’ll bounce back closer to the 55-60 point range — his underlying numbers showed he was snakebitten as a finisher last season, plus it’s common for young blue-chip forwards to break out in Year 3 following a sophomore slump. Beniers is also a polished, advanced two-way player already. With that said, even if he scores 60 points while also driving strong defensive results, that wouldn’t be a true 1C-caliber performance.
Stephenson’s transition to Seattle will be fascinating to monitor. The speedy playmaking center dipped to 51 points last season, which is still decent production for a 2C, but there are a couple of red flags to be wary of. First, Stephenson’s defensive metrics crumbled last year. Stephenson surrendered five-on-five scoring chances and expected goals against at the worst rate of all Vegas forwards in 2023-24. Secondly, he’ll have to prove he can excel in a top-six role without the help of Mark Stone, an elite winger, as his linemate.
Seattle’s center situation mirrors the club’s overall roster build — its depth is excellent (Shane Wright and Yanni Gourde will center the bottom-six lines) but the top-of-the-lineup scoring punch is underwhelming.
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Philadelphia Flyers: Sean Couturier and Morgan Frost
Couturier raced to 21 points in his first 26 games while also being an above-average two-way play driver. He was playing through injuries in the second half — he got sports hernia surgery at the end of the season — which caused both his production and defensive metrics to crater. That included a couple of highly debated healthy scratches soon after being named captain. Couturier finished the year with 38 points, which isn’t close to good enough for a 1C. But after having missed nearly two years of game action because of devastating injuries,the hard work he’s put in to become an effective NHLer again is admirable.
Frost is still working to establish himself as a long-term piece of the Flyers’ core. The skilled playmaking center was a healthy scratch at times in the first half and hasn’t always been the most reliable defensive player. He turned it around in the second half and finished with 41 points in 71 games. Frost is an intriguing talent but’s he not good/consistent enough yet to be considered a true top-six center.
(Top photo: Curtis Comeau / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)